Russian oil ministry sees a collapse in output

Russia has repeatedly defied outsiders’ forecasts of imminent oil decline. Now the energy ministry is the one preaching doom

Oil production in Russia will inevitably decline over the next two decades, says the country’s energy ministry. The only question is by how much, and the answer leaves a lot of wiggle room. Output could ease off by just 1.2%, the ministry says – or by almost half. In its worst-case scenario, the report says existing oilfields will be able to provide Russia with less than half of today’s production of about 10.7m barrels a day. At best, growth in production is only sustainable until 2020. After that, the report predicts production will contract from 1.2% to 46% depending on prices, taxation and whether sanctions over the Ukrainian conflict remain in place. The ministry modelled four scenarios