Why Russia’s oil exports aren’t about to fall

Under almost any economic scenario, the country’s supply to the global market will keep rising

THE RESILIENCE of Russian oil output and the growth of its exports over recent years surprised a market that, mindful of the country’s painful economic transition, has been much more pessimistic. The economic downturn that struck in 2012 worsened in 2014 after the dual external shocks of falling oil prices and sanctions that undermined investment and the technological capabilities of Russian oil companies. But more surprises are in store. Past investments in greenfields, the ruble’s weakness, a targeted taxation system and depressed domestic demand for liquids – itself an outcome of economic fragility – will ensure record high production and exports, at least for 2016-17. Later on, the decli