Why Russia’s oil exports aren’t about to fall
Under almost any economic scenario, the country’s supply to the global market will keep rising
THE RESILIENCE of Russian oil output and the growth of its exports over recent years surprised a market that, mindful of the country’s painful economic transition, has been much more pessimistic. The economic downturn that struck in 2012 worsened in 2014 after the dual external shocks of falling oil prices and sanctions that undermined investment and the technological capabilities of Russian oil companies. But more surprises are in store. Past investments in greenfields, the ruble’s weakness, a targeted taxation system and depressed domestic demand for liquids – itself an outcome of economic fragility – will ensure record high production and exports, at least for 2016-17. Later on, the decli
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
