Forecasts of oil sands’ demise greatly exaggerated

Canadian regulator the CER’s Global Net-Zero scenario paints a gloomy picture for the oil sands, but the analysis may be fundamentally flawed

The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released its annual round of long-term energy scenarios in mid-June, and for the first time provided an outlook for Canadian crude oil production through 2050 under its Global Net-Zero Scenario—one of three scenarios in the Canada’s Energy Future 2023 report and the worst case for the country’s oil industry. Under this scenario, the CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA in its Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario in its World Energy Outlook 2022 report—$35/bl in 2030 and $24/bl in 2050 based on 2021 inflation-adjusted dollars—and for Canadian crude oil production to drop by the same 76% as global crude oil production over the 2021–50