Newsletters | Request Trial | Log in | Advertise | Digital Issue   |   Search
  • Upstream
  • Midstream & Downstream
  • Gas & LNG
  • Trading & Markets
  • Corporate & Finance
  • Geopolitics
  • Podcasts
Search
Related Articles
Major upstream decline threatens Mexico’s energy security
Dire crude projections and heavy debt burden are weighing heavily on NOC Pemex
Offshore industry overcoming arch foes
ExxonMobil and Eni offer hope for projects as sector looks to get to grips with cost overruns and delays
Bakken oil output may hold its ground
While oil prices will determine the trajectory of the key US shale patch, regulation and technological shifts are also likely to shape direction longer term
China’s oil output to scale new heights
New discoveries and stabilisation of legacy fields’ output have helped China reverse the decline and be a top-five producer in recent years
Old hands dominate Algeria’s upstream auction
The country’s latest licensing round attracted bids from IOCs and NOCs in a better showing than its last outreach to bidders
US, Russia and China circle the Arctic
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
Look again at African oil and gas investment
Sound development planning is essential in this diverse and rapidly evolving region
Azerbaijan enjoys rare upstream FID
BP and partners have reached a $2.9b FID on a new phase at Shah Deniz, but slow progress on other gas projects is attributed to a lack of European support
Energy NL upbeat on Newfoundland despite industry doubts
CEO argues the upstream potential remains huge as analysts question future oil production for Canadian province’s offshore industry
Canada’s energy superpower ambition
The new government is talking and thinking big, and there are credible reasons to believe it is more than just grandstanding
CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA
Canada Upstream
Vincent Lauerman
Calgary
18 August 2023
Follow @PetroleumEcon
Forward article link
Share PDF with colleagues

Forecasts of oil sands’ demise greatly exaggerated

Canadian regulator the CER’s Global Net-Zero scenario paints a gloomy picture for the oil sands, but the analysis may be fundamentally flawed

The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released its annual round of long-term energy scenarios in mid-June, and for the first time provided an outlook for Canadian crude oil production through 2050 under its Global Net-Zero Scenario—one of three scenarios in the Canada’s Energy Future 2023 report and the worst case for the country’s oil industry. Under this scenario, the CER assumes the same international crude oil prices as the IEA in its Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario in its World Energy Outlook 2022 report—$35/bl in 2030 and $24/bl in 2050 based on 2021 inflation-adjusted dollars—and for Canadian crude oil production to drop by the same 76% as global crude oil production over the 2021–50

Also in this section
The death knell for UK energy security
7 July 2025
The end of Grangemouth and Lindsey oil refineries marks a worrying trend across Europe amid cost and transition pressures
Petroleum Economist: July/August 2025
3 July 2025
The July/August 2025 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
Middle East Gas Conference 2025
2 July 2025
The global energy community will converge in Dubai on 10 December for a landmark event dedicated to shaping the future of natural gas across the region
New Zealand backs gas, but results take time
30 June 2025
Government is sending out the right policy signals to support increased domestic gas development, but policy takes time to implement and even longer to yield results

Share PDF with colleagues

COPYRIGHT NOTICE: PDF sharing is permitted internally for Petroleum Economist Gold Members only. Usage of this PDF is restricted by <%= If(IsLoggedIn, User.CompanyName, "")%>’s agreement with Petroleum Economist – exceeding the terms of your licence by forwarding outside of the company or placing on any external network is considered a breach of copyright. Such instances are punishable by fines of up to US$1,500 per infringement
Send

Forward article Link

Send
Sign Up For Our Newsletter
Project Data
Maps
Podcasts
Social Links
Featured Video
Home
  • About us
  • Subscribe
  • Reaching your audience
  • PE Store
  • Terms and conditions
  • Contact us
  • Privacy statement
  • Cookies
  • Sitemap
All material subject to strictly enforced copyright laws © 2025 The Petroleum Economist Ltd
Cookie Settings
;

Search