Canada’s oil industry adjusts to new reality

The days of bumper output may be behind the producer, but moderate growth could persist for some time, especially if demand and oil prices stay high

Canadian oil production has slowed to a more modest pace since the second half of the last decade after more than 20 years of rapid growth (see Fig.1), and according to the IEA the rate of growth is set to decelerate even more through 2030. But there are both upside and downside risks to the agency’s medium-term outlook for Canadian crude oil and NGLs production. “A key reason for the recent slowdown was the 2014–16 oil price crash,” Kevin Birn, vice-president and chief analyst for Canadian oil markets at information provider S&P Global Commodity Insights, told Petroleum Economist. “The success of North American production—the oilsands since the beginning of this century and US tight oil