The processing facility at the Suncor oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Canada’s oil industry adjusts to new reality
The days of bumper output may be behind the producer, but moderate growth could persist for some time, especially if demand and oil prices stay high
Canadian oil production has slowed to a more modest pace since the second half of the last decade after more than 20 years of rapid growth (see Fig.1), and according to the IEA the rate of growth is set to decelerate even more through 2030. But there are both upside and downside risks to the agency’s medium-term outlook for Canadian crude oil and NGLs production. “A key reason for the recent slowdown was the 2014–16 oil price crash,” Kevin Birn, vice-president and chief analyst for Canadian oil markets at information provider S&P Global Commodity Insights, told Petroleum Economist. “The success of North American production—the oilsands since the beginning of this century and US tight oil
Also in this section
4 March 2026
The continent’s inventories were already depleted before conflict erupted in the Middle East, causing prices to spike ahead of the crucial summer refilling season
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
