Canadian crude oil’s last big push

Oil sands set to provide growth over next few years, but infrastructure and policy hurdles could stifle momentum further out

Canada’s crude oil production has skyrocketed since the turn of the century, rising from under 2m b/d to an estimated 4.9m b/d last year, while information provider S&P Global Commodity Insights is projecting it to jump another 500,000b/d over the next two years—the bulk of which will come from the oil sands (see Fig.1). But this could be the “last big push” for Canadian production, with output basically plateauing as of mid-decade because of a slowdown in Western Canadian supply growth in general, and oil sands growth in particular, according to Kevin Birn, S&P's chief analyst for Canadian oil markets. Western Canada dominates Canadian crude oil production, accounting for almost 95%