Mexico’s upstream Pemex gamble

The government refuses to expand E&P access despite the NOC’s high debt pile, falling crude output and growing gas import dependence

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s recent promise to revive Mexico’s flagging upstream, as well as achieve financial self-sufficiency for state oil and gas firm Pemex, is off to a shaky start. Liquid hydrocarbons output has slumped by almost 10% year-on-year in 2025 through to September, while the country’s rig count has collapsed by almost a half.   In February, the Mexican government announced a new crude production target of 1.8m b/d, in addition to 5bcft/d for gas, both set for 2030. Over the same timeframe, Pemex has been tasked with cutting its debt by almost a quarter, reducing its debt pile from almost $100b today to $77b by the end of the decade. The problem is that those lofty ambitions