For more than 65 years, OPEC has been focused on the core objective of oil market stability. We recognise it is vital for all industry stakeholders, is beneficial to the broader energy market and has multiplier benefits for society at large.
After all, energy is a key enabler for people all around the world, and oil is essential for almost every facet of daily life. Amid the humdrum of everyday routines and rapid news cycles, it is easy to overlook that societal and economic prosperity globally continue to depend on oil and petroleum-derived products.
However, the reality in 2025 is that, without them, most cars, buses and trucks would be stranded, airplanes would be grounded, the construction sector would grind to a halt, food production would be devastated, and medicines and many other health products would be difficult to produce. And this reflects but a fraction of humanity’s broader relationship with oil.
Looking ahead, we believe that all future energy pathways see the world needing more crude oil and the products derived from it for energy and economic security, not less. In OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO), we see global oil demand reaching around 123m b/d by 2050, and oil still making up around 30% of the global energy mix by then.
It is also important to stress that future energy security requires all energies, with every single energy source needed to meet looming energy demand. In the 2025 WOO, global energy demand is set to rise by 23% to 2050. This is driven by a variety of factors.
The world’s population is set to increase to around 10b by 2050, and at the same time urbanisation is set to accelerate, with around 1.9b people moving to cities over the next 25 years. To put this urbanisation drive into context, it represents the equivalent of adding 210 cities the size of London.
Moreover, the global economy is expected to almost double in size, to $358t by 2050, with all the corresponding energy demand growth this entails. In fact, emerging technologies, such as AI, are already stoking the need for massive datacentres and considerable energy demand expansion. Global electricity demand since the start of this century has already more than doubled.
Additionally, energy access remains a critical challenge for billions, especially in the developing world, with more than 660m people still lacking basic forms of energy and 2.1b lacking clean cooking fuels. Everyone deserves to live in a world where they have access to energy.
A balanced approach
Before looking to the future, we should also learn from our past, including the fact that the history of energy has never been about replacing one energy source for another. Instead, it has always been about adding energies.
Demonstrating this reality, the world in 2025 consumed record levels of wood, coal, oil, gas and renewables, and expectations are for more records to be broken in 2026.
The sheer scale of demand for all commodities and energy sources underlines the need to dispel the notion that energy sources must be pitted against each other. Instead, policymakers must be clearheaded about energy realities and energy interconnectedness.
Take renewables, for example. We see wind and solar expanding at just over 6% on average per year to 2050—the fastest growth rate for all energies. However, amid their low starting base, we still expect renewables to account for only 13.5% of the global energy mix by then.
Supporting this expansion are OPEC member countries, which are investing heavily in this space alongside their investments in hydrocarbons. This balanced approach is vital, especially as renewables face challenges posed by intermittency, low energy density, and grid imbalances during periods of reduced wind and solar generation.
Moreover, renewables also require petroleum-powered vehicles and petroleum-derived products in their manufacture, construction and decommissioning. Suffice it to say, no economy can rely solely upon them, and they represent only one piece of a larger future energy jigsaw.
Renewables also do not represent the sole option to reduce emissions. Instead, we need to recognise the importance of technologies such as CCUS and direct air capture (DAC), as well as the circular carbon economy. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change views CCUS and DAC as having key roles to play in mitigating climate change moving forward.
As we head into 2026, the global energy sector stands at a critical juncture.
The PE Outlook 2026 theme talks of ‘The Shape of Energy to Come’. To put it simply, the future energy landscape is one of more energy and all energies, underpinned by the need for constant investment, investment and more investment. The message is clear.
For the oil industry alone, to meet future demand, maintain energy security and reduce emissions, global cumulative oil-related investments of $18.2t are required to 2050. It is vital for future energy security that these investments in oil are made alongside the huge investments required in other energies too. Ultimately, what happens today and tomorrow will have a direct bearing on our long-term energy future.
This is why OPEC and OPEC+ continue to support balanced and stable markets as a platform for investments and just and inclusive future energy pathways.
It has worked in the past, and we believe it will be vital for our future.
HE Haitham Al Ghais is OPEC Secretary General. This article is taken from our Outlook 2026 report. To read Outlook in full, click here.
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