Both power prices and electrolyser capex will need to drop for green hydrogen to undercut blue
European green hydrogen unlikely to undercut blue until 2050 – Aurora
Norway, Spain and the UK expected to achieve lowest production costs in 2030s, according to research company’s modelling
Green hydrogen production costs in Europe could fall to parity with blue in 2030 in some markets but further reductions look out of reach until 2050, consultancy Aurora Energy Research says. Parity with blue hydrogen would be at around €3/kg ($3.40/kg). Reducing green’s levelised cost of hydrogen to the key €2/kg point, where it starts to undercut blue hydrogen, could take until 2050, Aurora says. Achieving €2/kg would require both power prices and electrolyser capex to drop significantly below levels considered reasonable in the company’s central scenario. “For instance, an electrolyser running at 50pc load factor with an average power cost of €10/MWh could beat the [€2/kg] threshold, but
Also in this section
25 February 2026
Low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia development is advancing much more slowly and unevenly than once expected, with high costs and policy uncertainty thinning investment. Meanwhile, surging energy demand is reinforcing the role of natural gas and LNG as the backbone of the global energy system, panellists at LNG2026 said
18 February 2026
Norwegian energy company has dropped a major hydrogen project and paused its CCS expansion plans as demand fails to materialise
4 February 2026
Europe’s largest electrolyser manufacturers are losing patience with policymakers as sluggish growth in the green hydrogen sector undermines their decision to expand production capacity
2 February 2026
As a fertiliser feedstock, it is indispensable, but ammonia’s potential as a carbon-free energy carrier is also making it central to global decarbonisation strategies
