From green goals to ground realities

As the EU remains deadlocked over its 2040 emissions goal, the IEA has tempered its climate rhetoric, forecasting that oil and gas will continue growing over the coming decades

The European Commission proposed an amendment to the EU Climate Law on 2 July introducing a binding target of a 90% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. Since then, progress has stalled. EU environment ministers failed to reach consensus on the proposal during a meeting on 12 September, deferring the decision to the EU leaders’ summit scheduled for 23–24 October. On 18 September, the Environment Council adopted a “statement of intent” outlining a post-2030 Nationally Determined Contribution with a 2035 emissions-reduction range of 66.25–72.5% versus 1990 levels. The range aligns with existing legislation and the proposed 2040 goal but remains non-bindi