Outlook 2022: NOCs face difficult transition

State-sponsored oil companies will either sink or swim as the energy transition gathers pace

NOCs account for about half of global oil and gas production, but their role in the energy transition is often overlooked. NOCs are complex institutions with different strengths and burdens than private companies. And as the world gradually shifts away from fossil fuels, they will follow different trajectories. Some have the cash and technical skills to increase output, but many are already struggling and will be crippled by the energy transition. It is dangerous to generalise about NOCs. Companies such as Saudi Aramco are among the world’s most sophisticated oil and gas operators, with a combination of industry-leading technology, engineering capacity and strong balance sheets. But other NO