Letter from London: Twilight outside the desert

The dangers of a lack of oil and gas investment will leave the Middle East shouldering an even greater responsibility, with far-reaching implications for the energy landscape

Two decades ago, Matthew Simmons published Twilight in the Desert, a critically acclaimed and well-researched book that wrongly warned of an oil shock and peak oil, claiming Saudi Arabia could not sustain production. Since then, there have been more false prophecies—including peak oil demand, countless OPEC obituaries and the saviour of US shale. But the truth is that Saudi Arabia and Middle East will likely be last oilmen standing. While Petroleum Economist, OPEC and others have been screaming from the rafters about the lack of oil investment, the wider energy community only seems to take notice once the IEA wakes up to a fact. It is why IEA proclamations around peak oil demand are so dange