After a hiatus of US LNG FIDs since July 2023, approximately 85% of sanctioned supply capacity globally was located on the US Gulf Coast in 2025, propelled by recent regulatory streamlining, export authorisations and tariff pressures. Operators Woodside Energy, Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, NextDecade and Sempra Infrastructure have all greenlit US liquefaction trains since April. Despite increasing liquefaction costs, additional LNG FIDs are expected on the US Gulf in 2026, including the Kimmeridge-owned Commonwealth LNG development.
By 2030, the US Gulf Coast and Qatar combined will supply approximately 50% of global LNG production. While additional FIDs will be reached in the US and Qatar, Asian importers’ concerns around high LNG supply reliance on the two countries are also accelerating proposed projects elsewhere. By 2029, approximately 70mt/yr of additional liquefaction capacity—equivalent to more than 15% of the 2024 global LNG market—could be sanctioned in the Pacific, where buyers remain most focused on advancing brownfield developments.
Ramping up through 2026 FIDs: Canada and PNG
The Shell-operated 14mt/yr LNG Canada facility exported the country’s first LNG in mid-2025, and the project’s second-phase FEED contract has since been awarded. Supported by large global LNG players as shareholders, its brownfield status and the ability of its production to avoid the Panama Canal to reach Asia—reducing shipping costs and times—FID on LNG Canada Phase 2 should be reached next year. Also in British Columbia, the Ksi Lisims LNG project should reach FID in H1 2026, once it has contracted the majority of its output capacity. The development will harness two 6mt/yr near-shore FLNG units.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, the TotalEnergies-led Papua LNG project in Papua New Guinea—with a 6mt/yr capacity—already has liquefaction capacity allocated at ExxonMobil’s PNG LNG site, lowering its capex requirements and supporting its 2026 FID.
Rejuvenation underpins green lights from 2027: Indonesia and Australia
Twenty years ago, Indonesia was the world’s largest LNG producer, but it now lies outside of the top five. Italian IOC Eni’s 2023 Geng North discovery, estimated to contain approximately 5tcf of gas initially in place, is nearing FID as part of the operator’s Northern Hub development in the Kutei Basin.
The gas will be piped to the nearby Bontang LNG plant, which has been producing for almost 50 years but is now severely feedgas-constrained. Meanwhile, in Indonesia’s North Sumatra Basin, Mubadala Energy’s South Andaman Block encompasses the recent Tangkulo-1 and Layaran discoveries, containing approximately 8tcf of GIIP combined. Project sanction could be reached in 2027 and encompass reconverting the nearby Arun LNG facility, which first exported LNG in 1978, back to a liquefaction plant.
Australia was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2021, but its output flatlined in 2024 and its share of global production continues to fall. Browse remains the country’s largest undeveloped conventional gas resource, and Woodside plans to pipe its gas to its North West Shelf LNG facility. The Browse development is expected to be sanctioned in 2027, at the earliest. Meanwhile, the Beetaloo Basin’s vast onshore shale gas resources offer a unique opportunity to revitalise the country’s LNG exports. Tamboran Resources is examining large-scale monetisation of Beetaloo Basin gas by backfilling eastern Australia’s existing QCLNG and APLNG plants.
Restarts hold large FID potential: Alaska and Timor-Leste
Alaska exported LNG from 1969 until 2015, liquefying feedgas from the Cook Inlet Basin at ConocoPhillips’ Kenai LNG plant. Liquefying feedgas from the North Slope has been proposed for decades but delayed by cost, environmental and partner alignment issues. Glenfarne Group is leading the proposed Alaska LNG project, from which some Asian LNG buyers—including CPC, PTT, Tokyo Gas and POSCO—have signed offtake agreements, supported by geopolitical considerations. The 20mt/yr development benefits from low feedgas costs but the need for an estimated 1,300km gas pipeline significantly increases its capex requirements.
In Southeast Asia, Timor-Leste’s gas sales ended in 2025, when the Santos-operated Bayu-Undan gas condensate field—the Darwin LNG plant’s original feedgas supplier—was shut in. Woodside’s proposed Sunrise project lies 150km south of Timor-Leste and holds more than 5tcf of gas resources. Sunrise’s development has long been hampered by cross-border complications between Australia and Timor-Leste. However, plans for an onshore liquefaction plant in Timor-Leste are now progressing, to be supplied by Sunrise, the FEED for which could be awarded in 2026.
LNG FIDs’ Pacific brownfield pivot
While this year’s LNG FID capacity has been centred on the US Gulf Coast, propelled by continued regulatory and geopolitical tailwinds, from 2026 onwards project sanctionings will steadily shift to the Pacific—particularly Australasia, Southeast Asia and the west coast of North America. In these regions, greenlit developments will predominantly leverage legacy liquefaction infrastructure to reduce costs, construction timings and environmental footprints.
Marc Howson is head of APAC and global LNG at Welligence. This article is taken from our Outlook 2026 report. To read Outlook in full, click here.
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