Growth in global demand for natural gas and, in particular, LNG will far surpass previous expectations, driven by rising energy consumption in developing economies as well as increased electrification and, more recently, the rise of AI and datacentres, some of the world’s largest oil and gas companies told delegates at LNG2026 in Doha, Qatar.
The session, entitled ‘Global LNG Dynamics: An Industry Perspective’, featured His Excellency Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Minister of State for Energy Affairs, President and CEO of QatarEnergy; ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance; ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods; Shell CEO Wael Sawan; and TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné. It was moderated by Michael Stoppard, principal at Stoppard Energy.
Faith in gas
ExxonMobil’s Woods said gas uniquely addressed the need to provide affordable and reliable energy while also reducing emissions, adding it would be used for decades in the future.
The outlook for gas is supported by the pace of growth in energy demand, Shell’s Sawan said. “The world is adding the energy demand of Switzerland every single month at the moment and will continue to do so up to 2050,” he said. “And gas has a particularly important role to play.”
Gas is the fastest-growing non-renewable energy source, he said, with demand for LNG specifically increasing at an even faster pace. Driven by increased energy consumption, primarily in Asia, Shell’s latest LNG Outlook projects a 60% growth in LNG demand by 2040.
His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said the country’s planned massive expansion of LNG capacity reflected its firm belief that gas demand will rise more quickly than once assumed.
“We have expanded in gas tremendously,” H.E. Minister Al-Kaabi said, citing expectations of future demand growth not only from economic expansion, “but also, furthermore, because of AI”.
QatarEnergy’s FID on the North Field East project, due online later this year and set to produce 32mt/yr of LNG at full capacity, was taken in February 2021, at a time when global gas prices were still bearish in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there were calls by some policymakers and organisations to limit further investment in fossil fuels.
Greenlighting such an ambitious expansion at such a time was “courageous”, the minister said, adding the decision was based on confidence that the market would need this volume in the future. His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said a “cancel culture” seen for several years around oil and gas had faded as policymakers and consumers recognised the continuing need for hydrocarbons.
TotalEnergies’ Pouyanné noted the dramatic reappraisal of natural gas that had occurred over the past three decades since he joined the industry.
“When we were exploring and found gas, it was considered a failure. To monetise the gas was really a challenge,” Pouyanné said, adding that falling LNG costs and improvements in technology had transformed the fuel into a cornerstone of the modern energy system.
“We made a revolution in slashing the cost of LNG and making it affordable,” he said.
ConocoPhillips’ Lance said LNG demand alone could double over the coming decades, with gas and LNG increasingly critical for meeting peak electricity demand in both advanced and developing economies. Asia will absorb the majority of this incremental supply, he said, noting that some traditional exporters in Southeast Asia are becoming importers as domestic gas production declines and as populations grow. China, India and ASEAN countries will be major growth centres, he said, but there will also be emerging demand in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
Woods agreed the strongest growth will occur in regions where people are “growing out of energy poverty” and economies are expanding rapidly.
Sawan noted that the role of AI as a primary driver of long-term energy growth was overstated, saying that, in reality, the largest source of growth was rising energy use among people moving from low- to middle-income lifestyles. AI’s bigger impact may be in how energy systems are managed, he added, through smarter grids and load balancing.
Woods said billions of people still live in energy poverty and that improving living standards will require large increases in reliable power, with gas playing a major role.
AI, by contrast, is creating incremental demand mainly in developed economies, particularly the US. Lance said US power demand had been flat for decades but is now rising because of electrification and AI.
Don’t fear oversupply
Although the world is on the verge of receiving a substantial wave of new LNG supply over the next few years, primarily from the US and Qatar, the panellists played down fears of prolonged oversupply. Lance expressed doubt about such fears, pointing to the cyclical nature of the industry.
“There may be a soft spot for a few months or maybe a year, but we’re looking at decades,” he said.
Sawan said the energy crisis following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict showed the dangers of underinvestment.
The priority now, he said, is rebuilding confidence that supply will be available for countries investing in import terminals, power plants and gas infrastructure, in order to “build demand sustainably for the future”.
Woods said the LNG market differs from oil because most volumes are sold under long-term contracts, which helps moderate supply swings.
Pouyanné said LNG is extremely capital-intensive and inherently cyclical, pointing to the lack of new FIDs between 2022 and 2025 as evidence that companies tend to hold back investment when prices and cash flows are low, only to accelerate spending once markets tighten.
In contrast, H.E. Minister Al-Kaabi said QatarEnergy anticipated a period of oversupply between 2025 and 2030 but proceeded with its projects even during the COVID-19 pandemic—while many other companies deterred investment—leveraging its strong balance sheet.
Talking strategy
The speakers also characterised their companies’ strategies with regards to LNG and the broader oil and gas sector.
Woods said ExxonMobil focused on identifying globally competitive resources and using technology to unlock value. Rather than an oil and gas company, “we describe ourselves as a tech company”, he said, pointing to the use of advanced technologies in the Permian Basin to increase recovery rates, as well as the company’s large chemicals business and inroads into the carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).
Pouyanné said TotalEnergies’ LNG strategy is built around diversification and scale.
“We produce LNG in 12 countries,” he said, arguing that large resource bases and large-scale projects offer superior economics and long-term resilience. The company continues to expand in Qatar and Mozambique, among other locations.
Oil and gas remain central to TotalEnergies’ identity, Pouyanné said, describing them as part of the company’s “DNA”. The company’s corporate strategy is “more energy and less emissions”, spanning oil, gas and electricity. TotalEnergies has built a larger power generation and electricity trading business than many of its peers, alongside its hydrocarbons portfolio.
Lance said ConocoPhillips, as one of the largest LNG suppliers globally, is developing around 15mt/yr of US LNG capacity. The company produces about 2bcf/d of natural gas in the US but markets far larger volumes across North America, thanks to its strong unconventional position.
“We know what wins all the time: low cost and low emissions intensity,” Lance said.
Lance added that ConocoPhillips expects continued growth in oil demand alongside strong growth in gas and LNG, focusing investment on resources with the lowest cost of supply and lowest emissions intensity.
His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said QatarEnergy’s projects aim to deliver some of the lowest-carbon LNG in the world through large-scale CO2 sequestration. Supporting its LNG production, the company also has significant trading capability as well as a vast LNG carrier fleet—set to number 200 in the future. Beyond Qatar, QatarEnergy is also developing the 18mt/yr Golden Pass project in the US with ExxonMobil.
“Having the size and the capacity and flexibility gives our customers something that’s not available with many sellers,” he said.
QatarEnergy is one of the world’s largest holders of exploration acreage, he said, and remains active in both oil and gas exploration globally.
Oil will be needed “for a very, very long time”, H.E. Minister Al-Kaabi said, pointing in particular to petrochemicals, which rely on liquid hydrocarbons as feedstock.
Sawan said Shell seeks to be competitive both on cost and carbon intensity. He highlighted the start-up of LNG Canada, which provides a new route linking North American gas supply with Asian markets and draws power largely from a renewables-dominated grid.
Shell is also investing heavily in LNG bunkering. The company now operates about 25 LNG bunkering vessels globally, allowing marine customers to refuel at multiple ports and supporting LNG’s role as a shipping fuel.
This article was originally published in Day 2 of the LNG2026 Show Daily, produced by Petroleum Economist. Click here to read the Show Dailies in full.
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