LNG in 2026: What factors to watch
Petroleum Economist examines the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the LNG market for this year
After several years of record volumes of new LNG supply being sanctioned—overwhelmingly in the US and Qatar—the third major wave of global LNG supply is finally arriving, and its scale will be formidable. Roughly 220mt of additional LNG production is expected to come onstream between 2025 and 2030, equivalent to around 300bcm of natural gas. The widely held consensus among analysts is that 2026 will be the first year in many where supply growth outpaces demand growth. That imbalance should translate into lower prices. In the near term, cheaper gas will trigger a demand response primarily through fuel switching. If lower prices are sustained, they could also underpin structural demand growth,
Also in this section
29 April 2026
Trafigura’s $1b prepayment agreement confirms African resource holders’ renewed interest in oil-backed financing deals as they look to capitalise on high oil prices
29 April 2026
The UAE’s departure from the oil producers’ group was a surprise to many, but the move can be traced back to a single point five years ago
28 April 2026
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
28 April 2026
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
