Sceptics see the output boom in the US about to bust

Chris Nelder reviews new analysis of US tight oil and shale gas production which suggests the output boost from unconventionals will wane before the end of this decade

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the data-gathering arm of the US Department of Energy, fracking has a bright future. Production of tight oil and gas from US shale formations is expected to remain robust in the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2014 reference case, with total crude oil production rising from 7.4 million barrels a day (b/d) in 2013 to 9.6m b/d in 2019, then slowly declining to 7.5m b/d by 2040. Natural gas production is projected to grow continuously from 66.5 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) to 102.7bn cf/d over the same period. Drilling Deeper, a comprehensive, extraordinarily detailed, and highly transparent new report prepared by veteran Canadian geoscie