Caspian contagion risks
A banking crisis is a short-term risk in a region bursting with energy developments
A banking crisis in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan has put a renewed onus on the oil and gas sector as both Caspian economies struggle to deal with the fallout from a slowdown in neighbouring Russia and China. Analysts fear the banking problems of the two economies—still reeling from a decline in commodity prices and currency devaluations—may spread, affecting big capital-spending plans aimed at arresting declining oil production. A default by the International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA) in May sent shockwaves across the Caspian after the country's largest lender said it was seeking a write-down as part of a $3.3bn restructuring. Kazakhstan, which is undertaking yet another painful restructuring of
Also in this section
2 April 2026
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
2 April 2026
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
