Changing fortunes for Iraq in 2019

A new federal government has a powerful engine in terms of rising crude output and export capacity, but also faces huge domestic difficulties

Iraq is setting off on the right foot. Record crude output (4.6mn b/d) and exports (3.58mn b/d) in August 2018 supported Iraq's fiscal outlook, allowing Baghdad to secure an estimated budget surplus of $23bn—a turnaround from its planned deficit of $10.6bn. Iraq was also set to exit 2018 with a new government, spearheaded by former oil minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi. For investors, key questions arise for Iraq's petroleum sector in 2019: by how much will crude production and exports increase? And will the summer of 2019 signal fresh protests as temperatures soar and electricity shortfalls re-emerge? Abdul-Mahdi, a respected economist, achieved several feats during his former roles as oil and fina