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IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
US, Russia and China circle the Arctic
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
OPEC+ still showing restraint
Petroleum Economist analysis shows OPEC bringing back some barrels in May, but fewer than expected, while OPEC+ continues to see output fall
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
Europe’s hard choices on gas security
EU half measures over storage regulation, geopolitical risks to ending Russian gas, power outage questions and China’s LNG resale leverage make for a challenging path ahead.
Russia’s implausible gas strategy
The country may have the resources, but sanctions and a lack of market access make its gas ambitions look very questionable
OPEC+ keeps more barrels off market in April
A fall in Venezuelan output drives overall production lower, as Saudi Arabia starts to slowly bring more crude to the market
OPEC compliance improves amid market share threat
The surprise decision to bring on extra supply has coincided with better quota conformity from laggards in the group, Petroleum Economist analysis shows
OPEC+ plays with a straight bat
The oil alliance’s decision to keep to the plan amid tightening economic fundamentals seems to have been lost in the global geopolitical maelstrom, misplaced market speculation and haze of conjecture
Russia Opec
Daniel Crawford
Moscow
6 July 2020
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Letter from Moscow: Putin triumphant, but facing choppy waters

The Russian strongman’s referendum delivered him the expected result. But there are troubles on the horizon

Russia’s late June constitutional referendum delivered a strong majority in support of reforms that could keep President Vladimir Putin in power until 2036. Almost 78pc of voters supported the measures, election officials say, while turnout was estimated at 65pc. This has given the Kremlin its desired mandate. In a national address at the end of June, Putin urged voters to ensure Russia’s “stability, security and prosperity”. But amid the continuing economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, Russia, like many other countries, will struggle to deliver on such promises. Economic turmoil Large sectors of the Russian economy were closed during lockdown, with little government support availa

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