Letter from the Middle East: The UAE and Opec—a problem postponed, not solved
Abu Dhabi may have fallen into line for now, but tensions could re-emerge next month
The solution reached by Opec+ in early December may have calmed oil markets’ fears over lack of unity in the alliance’s appetite for retaining production curbs until the end of the year. But month-by-month revisiting of output limits opens the prospect for tensions to emerge with each negotiation. And the potentially growing impatience of the UAE to remake its quota, to allow it to produce more, could thus emerge not as an issue bubbling in the background, but as an open and prolonged battle. The UAE, represented effectively by Abu Dhabi, has traditionally been a strong supporter of Opec, despite not having been a founder member. It usually closely coordinates its policy with Mid-East Gul
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
