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Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Is this nuclear power’s big moment?
The Middle East energy crisis may turn out to be pivotal to the industry’s long-term expansion, but significant challenges still stand in its way
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
Middle East oil vulnerabilities have been exposed
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
How Hormuz chokehold threatens LNG buyers
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
Explainer: Iran’s indispensable energy role
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
The curious case of oil-on-water
The market is facing being drowned in excess crude, but one caveat is that a large chunk is due to buyers reluctant to snap up sanctioned barrels
MENA states sharpen their gas focus
The GCC countries and other states in the region are looking to make greater domestic use of gas, both that produced at home and imported volumes
Iran Nuclear
Ian Simm
30 April 2021
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Iran deal faces many hurdles

A purported leak is just the latest potential obstacle to Washington-Tehran rapprochement

Talks resumed in Vienna in the last week of April as the remaining signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) attempt to facilitate the US’ return to the 2015 agreement. But any sense of optimism from the US indirectly negotiating a framework under which it can return to the table was dented by a leak that raises concerns over Russian intentions, as well as affording a rare glimpse into Iranian policymaking. In a recording allegedly released by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, complains of the security force’s dominance of Iranian foreign policy and suggests Russia sought to undermine the JCPOA. In a three-hour re

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