UAE and Saudi Arabia to put differences behind them

An understanding that the Opec partners are better working together appears likely to keep the peace

The recent squabble between the UAE and Saudi Arabia threatened to derail over a year of constructive collaboration between Opec and its partners to restabilise the market under their May 2020 deal. But, while such tensions may continue, they do not have to pose an existential threat to Opec’s survival. Both Opec+ combatants are pushing to increase oil production capacity by 1mn bl/d. But the UAE has been more constrained by its quota baseline than its southern neighbour, and Abu Dhabi sought to force change. Saudi Arabia was already relatively unrestricted by its baseline, having only twice in history surpassed the 11mn bl/d quota in place prior to the recent hike to 11.5mn bl/d. Several fo