Reality bites for global climate ambitions

Real-world trends for rising oil use in the developing world cast increasing doubt on lofty emissions goals

The IEA published a five-year oil market outlook in mid-June. This is always a brave exercise, and it is even more so in the post-pandemic world and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Oil 2023: Analysis and Forecast to 2028, the agency has planted its flag firmly in the peak oil demand camp and rebutted a theme published in many previous editions that pointed out the dangers of insufficient investment in the upstream oil industry. As far as the peak oil argument is concerned, the IEA continues to show growth in demand from 99.8m b/d in 2022 to 105.7m b/d in 2028 (the limit of the forecast), with the editor of the report saying the agency is “pretty confident” of a definitive peak by