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Letter from Austria: OPEC delivers wake-up call
A brutally honest picture about the potential role of oil and gas in 2050 should prompt policymakers to not only reflect but also change course to meet vital energy needs
OPEC+’s extra barrels mostly made of paper
Robust demand and a limited supply of additional physical barrels from key OPEC+ producers has kept the oil market in a healthy price range
IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
OPEC+ still showing restraint
Petroleum Economist analysis shows OPEC bringing back some barrels in May, but fewer than expected, while OPEC+ continues to see output fall
OPEC+ keeps more barrels off market in April
A fall in Venezuelan output drives overall production lower, as Saudi Arabia starts to slowly bring more crude to the market
OPEC compliance improves amid market share threat
The surprise decision to bring on extra supply has coincided with better quota conformity from laggards in the group, Petroleum Economist analysis shows
OPEC+ plays with a straight bat
The oil alliance’s decision to keep to the plan amid tightening economic fundamentals seems to have been lost in the global geopolitical maelstrom, misplaced market speculation and haze of conjecture
Letter from the UK: A positive legacy for OPEC?
Oil producer group could spearhead the shift to cleaner energy in member countries and be part of transition solution
UAE could be big winner from Aramco U-turn
Saudi Arabia’s decision not to expand capacity target seen as bolstering UAE’s position within OPEC+
Angolan oil minister Diamantino Pedro Azevedo arriving at an OPEC meeting in 2023
Opinion
Opec
Neil Atkinson
Paris
19 January 2024
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Letter on OPEC: OPEC composition will continue to evolve

UAE looks a prime candidate to assert its growing power amid a group unlikely to either gain or lose many members in the foreseeable future

Angola’s decision in December to give up its membership of OPEC is important in that the loss of any country weakens the organisation’s power in global oil markets. For Angola, if it can reverse the long-term decline in its production from the peak of 1.9m b/d seen in 2008, then it will no longer be prevented by output quota restrictions from maximising its market share. However, this would be a long way in the future, if it ever happens. When Angola joined OPEC in 2007 it was regarded as a major producer and exporter in the making, with IOCs—including ExxonMobil and Chevron—talking a big game about how production could easily exceed 2m b/d. A combination of OPEC output restrictions, lack of

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