Outlook 2024: Welcome to the geopolitical rollercoaster
Oil and gas are once again being weaponised
The geopolitics of energy are not what they used to be: they’re getting much “worse”. And also much “better”. Worse, because the risks are getting more heated than they have in decades. But also better, because the markets’ resilience and ability to weather geopolitical turmoil have never been greater. The reasons for the risk proliferation are many. Let me point out three. First, the rise of what Ian Bremmer calls the “G-Zero” world: the decreasing ability and/or willingness of the US to serve as the world’s policeman, the Sino-American rivalry and the mounting tensions between the West and the Rest. After the 1973 Arab oil embargo, of which we just marked the 50th anniversary, the world se
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
