Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out

For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure

The two-week ceasefire announced between Iran and the US and Israel should have brought cheers from the countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). After all, they—rather than Israel—have borne the brunt of Iranian missile and drone attacks since February. It is GCC crude and LNG that has been trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz, and their refineries, pipelines and export terminals that were being relentlessly degraded. Surely, they would welcome a return to normality? Instead, the outbreak of a fragile peace has sparked fear and foreboding in GCC capitals, reinforced when US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed to reach an agreement and President Donald Trump imposed a blockade on Iranian p