Trump’s bid to reshape the global energy order
From Venezuela to Hormuz, the US—backed by the most powerful military force ever assembled—is redrawing not only oil and gas flows but also the global balance of energy power
In January 2025, US President Donald Trump began his second term with a clear objective: to lower oil prices below the levels prevailing under the previous administration. In response, OPEC increased supply, and Brent ended 2025 at $60/bl. In July 2025, Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed on a high-level transatlantic trade framework under which the EU committed to purchasing $750b in US energy over the next three years. In practice, US energy exports to the EU during that period are far more likely to reach around $210b. Bridging the gap to the $750b headline figure would require the Commission to actively encourage EU buyers to sign long-term US LNG contract
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14 April 2026
The GECF has warned it may revise its projections for demand this year downwards in light of conflict in the Middle East, although it maintains its forecasts for 2027 and onwards
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Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
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Turkmenistan is moving ahead with a modest expansion of the giant Galkynysh field to sustain gas deliveries abroad, but persistent delays to other key pipeline projects and geopolitical risks continue to constrain its export ambitions
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