Back to the new normal
Judging by history, and reflecting rampant supply, tepid demand and a passive Opec, $50 oil is about where the price belongs
It's time to stop muttering about the oil-price crash and time to stop talking about a recovery. The terms imply that oil prices should be higher. They shouldn't. A better term is the oil-price return or, to pluck from the economist's lexicon, the reversion to the mean. An oil price at $45-50 a barrel-its level since the beginning of September-is neither high nor low. It's pretty much normal. Between the Second World War and the end of 2014, the mean price of oil, adjusted for inflation, has been $41/b. Between 1974, the first full year to feel the impact of Opec power, and 2014, when Opec power vanished, the real price of oil has averaged $54/b. That historical range-$41-54/b-neatly coincid

Also in this section
25 July 2025
Mozambique’s insurgency continues, but the security situation near the LNG site has significantly improved, with TotalEnergies aiming to lift its force majeure within months
25 July 2025
There is a bifurcation in the global oil market as China’s stockpiling contrasts with reduced inventories elsewhere
24 July 2025
The reaction to proposed sanctions on Russian oil buyers has been muted, suggesting trader fatigue with Trump’s frequent bold and erratic threats
24 July 2025
Trump energy policies and changing consumer trends to upend oil supply and demand