Known unknowns

Opec's efforts to cut supply will be the main theme of 2017 and prices will rise. But the outlook is still fraught with risk and uncertainty

Oil prices will rise in 2017. But, failing a supply-side shock or deeper-than-expected cuts from Opec, $60 a barrel will be the upper limit. Before that level is reached, bears still pose a threat too. And that price will be the rough ceiling, not a basecamp for bigger climbs. The tone for the year will be set before it begins - on 30 November, when Opec's ministers gather around the horseshoe table at the group's headquarters on Vienna's Helferstorferstrasse. Any cuts they agree will only be felt in physical markets from January. The end-November meeting is probably too soon for Opec to thrash out a meaningful deal. The one on the table, established in Algiers at the end of September, would