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Will Opec surprise the market?

Deeper-than-expected cuts are on the table and the momentum is behind a deal

All the signals from Opec point to a deal on 30 November that will sharply cut supply, possibly removing more oil than was implied by the end-September Algiers agreement. The group and its core Gulf producers have tired of sub-$50-a-barrel oil and they will shoulder the burden of the cuts. Non-Opec countries, including Russia, may also take part. After a technical meeting to iron out details on 22 November, sources in Opec's secretariat briefed reporters that group-wide supply would fall by 4-4.5% against what secondary sources said was October output of 33.6m b/d. In theory, that could amount to cuts of more than 1.1m b/d, taking supply to around 32.5m b/d (see table), though deeper cuts



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