Expect the unexpected from Sudan and South Sudan

Stability in South Sudan could raise production much higher than was agreed with Opec

For a small-scale oil producer, South Sudan could do a lot of damage to Opec's efforts to curtail supply. Neither South Sudan nor its northern neighbour Sudan, is a member of the group-although before the former gained independence in 2011 the unified country applied to join. Now they get their chance, in spirit anyway. As part of the deal with Opec, Sudan agreed to a 4,000-barrels-a-day reduction and South Sudan to cut 8,000 b/d. Complicating the situation is the fractious relationship between the neighbours, and South Sudan's impoverished economy. It depends on oil-a source of revenue heavily reduced by factional ethnic violence, which has caused most production to be shut in, reducing exp