Glut or glory

The Opec-non-Opec deal has brought hopes of a price recovery. But its success is not guaranteed

How long will this Opec-non-Opec deal last? The will of the market is, for now, behind the deal. If the producers who signed up in December manage to cut almost 1.8m barrels a day of supply, as they pledged, the stock draws now already underway will speed up, supply and demand will balance and a tighter market will sustain a $55-a-barrel ledge. That's what Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's oil minister, thinks - and he believes it will happen by mid-year. If so, he says, Opec won't need to extend the deal when it meets at the end of May. "The rebalancing which started slowly in 2016 will have its full impact by the first half." Opec's own secretariat offers a different view. Thanks to slower o