The IEA is now much more bearish on 2018 than Opec
The latest forecasts from the IEA and Opec offer very different pictures of the oil market next year
Either the International Energy Agency or Opec will spend 2018 making lots of revisions to forecasts. For years, their broad view on the oil market has tended to chime. But a chasm has opened up between their outlooks for 2018. Both can't be right. The next 12 months will tell the market which is wrong. Opec's latest monthly oil-market report, released on 13 December, is full of good news for the group's producers. Oil demand remains strong and will rise again next year by 1.5m barrels a day, it predicts. Non-Opec supply will grow too, but by just 1m b/d. The upshot, according to Opec, is that demand for the group's own oil will rise by 300,000 b/d in 2018 to an average of 33.2m. In November
Also in this section
16 January 2026
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
16 January 2026
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
15 January 2026
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
14 January 2026
Chavez’s socialist reforms boosted state control but pushed knowledge and capital out of the sector, opening the way for the US shale revolution
