False dawn for oil
EVs, fuel-economy standards and perceptions of supply abundance are not about to end oil-market volatility
Oil industry leaders, investors and government officials contemplating medium-term (say five-year-forecast) oil prices should be wary of the words "new normal". Consensus sees shale and electric vehicles (EVs) indefinitely penning crude oil prices in the $40-$60 range that has held since early 2015, with the exception of a single sharp decline below $30 in early 2016. We contend that the oil market remains firmly in a "boom-bust" era, characterised by large structural imbalances, and the absence of an effective swing producer, with no end in sight. Oil's recent relatively tight range is no more a new normal than the prior "new normal" interlude around $100 was from 2010-13. Medium term, expe
Also in this section
19 March 2026
The regional crisis highlights the undervalued role of fixed pipelines in the age of tanker flexibility
18 March 2026
Rising LNG exports and AI-driven power demand have raised concerns that US gas prices could climb sharply, but analysts say abundant shale supply and continued productivity gains should keep Henry Hub within a range that preserves the competitiveness of US LNG
18 March 2026
Risks of shortages in oil products may cause world leaders to panic and make mistakes instead of letting the market do what it does best
17 March 2026
The crisis in the Middle East has put LNG’s ability to offer security and flexibility under uncomfortable scrutiny
