New crisis and old
Subdued oil prices and intractable wars cast a shadow over the year
The backdrop to the Middle East and North Africa stage in 2017 illustrated the two key themes of the previous 12 months: low global oil prices; and continuing violence in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen. But other crises emerged. On 5 June, Saudi Arabia, with the backing of Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt, took the world by surprise by imposing an economic blockade on Qatar. The country was being punished, Saudi Arabia and its backers said, for failing to honour previous pledges to change domestic and regional policies towards political Islam and Iran. Qatar rejected what it called attempts to infringe upon its sovereignty. It circumvented the blockade by increasing imports of food and goods from Ir
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The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
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With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
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The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
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A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
