2020s oil price: beware black swans

Oil analytics firm OilX sees a gradual evolution of the 2020s market balance, although with both energy transition in demand and Opec renaissance in supply signalling downside

We anticipate that the 2020s—with the energy transition moving into full swing—to be a truly transformative decade for oil, but with demand largely influenced by two opposing forces the market could remain in equilibrium. On one hand, we see oil demand continuing to grow significantly in developing countries, particularly Asia. On the other hand, we expect the pace of the transition to pick up steam and for a series of environmental policies to be implemented, with a subsequent retarding effect on demand. Demand We forecast global oil demand to reach 108mn bl/d by 2030, with average yearly growth of more than 0.8mn bl/d. Based on demographic and GDP projections by international organisations