Opposing forces will affect oil market balance
Sluggish demand growth may be matched by an almost as equally anaemic lift in output
The oil market in 2020 will, in our view, be dominated by three key themes—the global economic slowdown, the ongoing drop in momentum in the US shale industry, and the sticky non-Opec production growth. These are opposing forces with material impact on the oil market balance for 2020. Oil demand worries are not going away. The global economic slowdown combined with the US-China tariff war clearly hit oil demand growth. In light of this, we expect oil demand to grow by 0.8mn bl/d year-on-year in 2019, compared to 5-year average growth of 1.5mn bl/d year-on-year. The growth rate is almost halved, demonstrating the impact of the economic slowdown. Our expectation is that the global economic s
Also in this section
2 April 2026
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
2 April 2026
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
