Forecasts differ on peak oil demand and trajectory of prices
Oil set to miss out on supercycle bounty
Consultancies warn that a sluggish demand outlook will largely prevent crude from joining in any sustained post-Covid price spikes
Forecasting crude oil prices has always been a mug’s game. There are so many expected and unexpected factors that can impact market fundamentals. And prices may verge far from the cost of the marginal barrel—even for extended periods—due to the impact of rational or irrational market expectations on trading activity. Despite this, banks and energy consultancies continue to make educated guesses on what oil prices will be in the short, medium and longer term. At the present time, three macro—and in certain ways interrelated—themes appear to be driving oil price forecasts: The possibility of yet another commodity supercycle; The timing of peak oil demand (POD) and how rapidly oil consumption
Also in this section
11 August 2025
The administration is pushing for deregulation and streamline permitting for natural gas, while tightening requirements and stripping away subsidies from renewables
8 August 2025
The producers’ group missed its output increase target for the month and may soon face a critical test of its strategy
7 August 2025
The quick, unified and decisive strategy to return all the barrels from the hefty tranche of cuts from the eight producers involved in voluntary curbs signals a shift and sets the tone for the path ahead
7 August 2025
Without US backing, the EU’s newest sanctions package against Russia—though not painless—is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s oil and gas revenues or its broader economy
