A Russia price cap: Too clever by half
The proposed mechanism may cause Russia some pain, but its impact is likely overstated
What has been touted as Russian oil market resilience stems from the fact that—despite refiner self-sanctioning and bans in places such as the US, the UK and Australia on the import of Russian-origin feedstock—its crude production and exports from have largely held up… so far. In April, Russian production fell by c.1mn bl/d but swiftly recovered in May and June. In August, Russian production fell by c.2pc month-on-month, to 10.6mn bl/d, only c.4pc below its pre-war level output. And part of this decline in output is related to a fall in Russian gas production, which has had a knock-on effect on condensate output. As we move toward a planned EU ban on Russian crude in early December and produ
Also in this section
28 April 2026
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
28 April 2026
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
28 April 2026
Datacentres will guzzle power at a ferocious rate, but the impact on wider energy markets will be far more complex than previously thought
28 April 2026
The key energy player faces balancing regional routes, political complexities, and creating a clear strategic vision for energy security






