Where next in Europe’s diesel crisis?
The fate of the continent’s supply crunch may lie elsewhere—in China, the Middle East and Russia
Europe’s diesel deficit has provided the only credible challenger to gas as the centrepiece of the continent’s energy crisis this year. Northwest Europe diesel cracks averaged $9/bl in 2021 and have averaged $40/bl so far this year—an increase of 420pc. But what has been driving the rally? And what is the outlook for European diesel pricing into 2023? Global capacity In a letter to his country’s oil executives this summer, US president Joe Biden warned the tightness in the world’s refining capacity was a “global challenge and global concern”. Biden’s words reflected the fact that c.3.5mn bl/d of distillation capacity had been shut down since the pandemic, resulting in a net decline after new
Also in this section
27 February 2026
LNG would serve as a backup supply source as domestic gas declines and the country’s energy system comes under stress during periods of low hydropower output and high energy demand
27 February 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
27 February 2026
The 25th WPC Energy Congress to take place in tandem as part of a coordinated week of high-level ministerial, institutional and industry engagements
27 February 2026
The deepwater sector must be brave by fast-tracking projects and making progress to seize huge offshore opportunities and not become bogged down by capacity constraints and consolidation






