China’s recovering oil demand may not be all it seems

Rise in imports may be more to do with stockpiling ahead of summer than actual increased consumption

China’s crude imports are showing signs of strength for March and April following weakness in January and February. But there is much debate over whether recent Chinese buying represents a genuine turnaround for end-user demand in the world’s biggest oil market and can be sustained in the second half of this year. Two key questions are the level of stockpiling and the limits to Russian crude purchases—and the uncertainty is likely to linger as demand continues its uneven revival. Vessel-tracking data indicates Chinese crude imports for March are set to increase by 250,000bl/d from February, to c.10.7mn bl/d, according to local consultancy JLC. This would mark a recovery from soft imports of