Outlook 2024: OPEC at the wheel

OPEC+ has created a new and higher oil market floor that both sets the scene to revive oil investment and has the begrudging acceptance of consumers

OPEC+ is back in the driving seat. For several years it has felt like huge black swan events have been controlling oil markets and the 23-nation producer alliance has been more in damage control mode than focused on fine-tuning market stability. But that tentatively has all changed. Indeed, oil prices appear to be lacking direction but that is maybe because, for OPEC+, whisper it quietly, they have already reached a destination of sorts. The oil market’s new-found equilibrium of between $80-100/b seems to have the implied support of producers and consumers alike. OPEC has shown it is likely to intervene if either prices drop into the $70s or there are alarming signals around demand. The Gulf