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A disorderly transition
Last year was one of records for renewables but also for oil, gas and coal, as the energy transition progresses in an increasingly uneven way, according to the Energy Institute’s latest annual report
China’s oil output to scale new heights
New discoveries and stabilisation of legacy fields’ output have helped China reverse the decline and be a top-five producer in recent years
India to help Asia spearhead global refining
Shifting demand patterns leaves most populous nation primed to become downstream leader as China and the West retreat
US, Russia and China circle the Arctic
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
Cheap gas key to unlocking new markets
Weaning poorer regions off coal means gas needs to be abundant and competitive longer term
Do not underplay China’s long-term gas growth narrative
A subdued market amid global trade tensions is just an aberration in gas’ upward trajectory
China’s critical gas position
China will play a huge role in driving gas demand, with its Qatar partnership crucial to this growth amid global structural challenges
Gas may be bridge fuel for centuries
Energy majors argue transition debate has started to factor in the complexities of demand shifts and the wider role for gas
China’s pragmatic coal-to-gas strategy
A cautious approach to coal-to-gas switching offers lessons to others who are looking to balance cost with cleaner energy
Turkey aims to reduce dependence on energy imports
Country is boosting domestic energy production while targeting development of oil and gas reserves in Africa and Asia
An EV-charging station in Xishuangbanna
China Supply and demand
Shi Weijun
Shanghai
19 January 2024
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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China’s accelerating transition to curtail oil and gas demand

Rapid electrification and the adoption of renewables may allow China to trim its dependence on fossil fuels and reach net zero sooner than previously expected

China’s rapid adoption of renewables under its energy transition will allow it to bypass a period of high demand growth for—and dependence on—oil and gas, as swift electrification helps the world’s largest energy consumer to peak fossil fuel demand before the end of this decade, according to a new flagship report released during COP28. China’s energy supply has the potential to achieve carbon-neutrality before 2055—more than five years ahead of the current target of 2060—according to the China Energy Transformation Outlook (CETO) from the Energy Research Institute (ERI) under the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency. The report’s analysis indicates

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