China’s diesel demand woes
Faster-than-expected economic growth fails to mask macro imbalances and shifting structural oil product trends
While China’s economy in Q1 2024 grew faster than expected (5.3% versus consensus forecasts of 4.9%), well-documented macro imbalances remain, including a property slump, weak consumer demand and mounting local government debt. How China manages its macro pivot from the debt-fuelled growth of the mid-2000s to a new economic orthodoxy centred on clean energy manufacturing remains unclear. What is clear is that China’s oil product balances have been reflecting structural changes in the economy for more than a year now. This includes greater petrochemical integration, higher LPG/naphtha usage and a tilt away from transport fuels to chemicals. Underpinning this transition has been the expectatio

Also in this section
7 August 2025
The quick, unified and decisive strategy to return all the barrels from the hefty tranche of cuts from the eight producers involved in voluntary curbs signals a shift and sets the tone for the path ahead
7 August 2025
Without US backing, the EU’s newest sanctions package against Russia—though not painless—is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s oil and gas revenues or its broader economy
6 August 2025
Diesel market disruptions have propelled crude prices above $100/bl twice in this century, and now oil teeters on the brink of another crude quality crisis
5 August 2025
After failed attempts to find a buyer for its stake in Russia’s largest oil producer, BP may be able to avoid the harsh treatment meted out to ExxonMobil and Shell when they exited—and could even restart operations if geopolitical conditions improve