Oil outlooks enter the twilight zone

The feud between the IEA and OPEC highlights how the lines between reality and fantasy over oil demand have become blurred, with huge ramifications for investment

The tragicomic spat between the IEA and OPEC is symptomatic of the ideological mess the energy industry is in. Narratives can be spun to suit any agenda, government policies are often confused, and the oil sector is portrayed as victim, villain and hero. The path to net zero and cheap energy continues to shift due to disparate and unclear energy strategies and forecasting fiction is presented as fact. The IEA suggests oil demand will stop growing by the end of the decade, which elicited a response from OPEC, claiming peak oil is not on the horizon. The IEA predicts not only that global oil demand—including biofuels—will likely level off near 106m b/d, up from just over 102m b/d in 2023, due