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Oil outlook: Who and what to believe?
OPEC and the IEA have very different views on where the oil market is headed, leaving analysts wondering which way to jump
India’s retreat from Russian oil could cause global trade flow shockwaves
US secondary sanctions are forcing a rapid reassessment of crude buying patterns in Asia, and the implications could reshape pricing, freight and supply balances worldwide. With India holding the key to two-thirds of Russian seaborne exports, the stakes could not be higher
OPEC+ off-target in July
The producers’ group missed its output increase target for the month and may soon face a critical test of its strategy
The great OPEC+ reset
The quick, unified and decisive strategy to return all the barrels from the hefty tranche of cuts from the eight producers involved in voluntary curbs signals a shift and sets the tone for the path ahead
A third distillate disruption
Diesel market disruptions have propelled crude prices above $100/bl twice in this century, and now oil teeters on the brink of another crude quality crisis
China creates two-tier oil dynamic
There is a bifurcation in the global oil market as China’s stockpiling contrasts with reduced inventories elsewhere
Letter from Austria: OPEC delivers wake-up call
A brutally honest picture about the potential role of oil and gas in 2050 should prompt policymakers to not only reflect but also change course to meet vital energy needs
OPEC+’s extra barrels mostly made of paper
Robust demand and a limited supply of additional physical barrels from key OPEC+ producers has kept the oil market in a healthy price range
Gas pricing finds a new norm
Gas-on-gas competition pricing has grown its share of consumption significantly over the past two decades, primarily at the expense of oil-price-escalation pricing, according to the IGU
Oil demand ramps up air miles
Jet fuel will play crucial role in oil consumption growth even with efficiency gains and environmental curbs, with geopolitical risks highlighting importance of plentiful stocks
Markets
Philip K. Verleger
9 April 2024
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Oil’s long, slow decline?

Lower costs and lasting government mandates key to transitioning away from fossil fuels, but oil will not be going anywhere fast if history and current policy is a guide

Government policymakers across the globe have embarked on one of the most ambitious efforts in centuries as they attempt to wean the world off fossil fuels. The IEA has become one of the leading intergovernmental bodies involved in this effort by publishing studies and testimonies describing how emissions of global warming gases can be reduced to net zero by 2050. These endeavours all fall under the rubric of the ‘energy transition’. A wide array of proposals has been offered, ranging from sustainable aviation fuels to carbon sequestration. Every day, there are new ideas, inventions and investments. Rarely, though, is there a careful, sober examination of the true possibilities. Realism is r

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Oil outlook: Who and what to believe?
19 August 2025
OPEC and the IEA have very different views on where the oil market is headed, leaving analysts wondering which way to jump
India’s retreat from Russian oil could cause global trade flow shockwaves
15 August 2025
US secondary sanctions are forcing a rapid reassessment of crude buying patterns in Asia, and the implications could reshape pricing, freight and supply balances worldwide. With India holding the key to two-thirds of Russian seaborne exports, the stakes could not be higher

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