OPEC+ must wait on contested demand outlook

Whether OPEC+ starts to unwind its oil production cuts from June will depend on heavily debated unfolding supply-demand balances

The outlook for the global crude markets remains contested, as evidenced by the widely divergent predictions for demand growth put forward by the IEA and OPEC already this year. Much will depend on the health of the Chinese economy and wider macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, across OECD economies. By contrast, there is more consensus on the outlook for the supply side of the equation. Forecasting is further complicated by the geopolitical divisions and sanctions that have fractured the global market and threaten to spill over into wider conflict. OPEC+ will not want to release the genie from the bottle for fear of not being able to put it back, but the ongoing voluntary cuts are cert