The outlook for the global crude markets remains contested
OPEC+ must wait on contested demand outlook
Whether OPEC+ starts to unwind its oil production cuts from June will depend on heavily debated unfolding supply-demand balances
The outlook for the global crude markets remains contested, as evidenced by the widely divergent predictions for demand growth put forward by the IEA and OPEC already this year. Much will depend on the health of the Chinese economy and wider macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, across OECD economies. By contrast, there is more consensus on the outlook for the supply side of the equation. Forecasting is further complicated by the geopolitical divisions and sanctions that have fractured the global market and threaten to spill over into wider conflict. OPEC+ will not want to release the genie from the bottle for fear of not being able to put it back, but the ongoing voluntary cuts are cert
Also in this section
20 March 2026
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
20 March 2026
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
20 March 2026
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
20 March 2026
The extent of the US-Israel war with Iran means there will be no going back to the previous market equilibrium no matter how the conflict ends
