Outlook 2025: China faces up to slowing clean product demand
Structurally lower GDP growth and the need for a different economic model will contribute to a significant slowdown
In the decade before the Covid-19 pandemic, China was a critical source of clean product demand growth. Over the period between 2011 and 2019, combined Chinese consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel averaged a yearly gain of 335,000b/d, outpacing that of India (+90,000b/d), the US (+110,000b/d) and Europe (+40,000b/d). Nonetheless, over the next decade Chinese clean product demand is set to slow dramatically, driven by structurally lower GDP growth rates and the need to shift away from an investment-led economic model. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles and LNG-fuelled trucks is also limiting the future outlook for Chinese demand, namely for gasoline and diesel. Early in the cycle
Also in this section
9 April 2026
The April 2026 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
9 April 2026
Offshore operators are working through an FID backlog as the rig market consolidates, helped by improving project economics and a renewed security drive
2 April 2026
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
2 April 2026
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
