Outlook 2025: China faces up to slowing clean product demand
Structurally lower GDP growth and the need for a different economic model will contribute to a significant slowdown
In the decade before the Covid-19 pandemic, China was a critical source of clean product demand growth. Over the period between 2011 and 2019, combined Chinese consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel averaged a yearly gain of 335,000b/d, outpacing that of India (+90,000b/d), the US (+110,000b/d) and Europe (+40,000b/d). Nonetheless, over the next decade Chinese clean product demand is set to slow dramatically, driven by structurally lower GDP growth rates and the need to shift away from an investment-led economic model. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles and LNG-fuelled trucks is also limiting the future outlook for Chinese demand, namely for gasoline and diesel. Early in the cycle
Also in this section
4 December 2025
Time is running out for Lukoil and Rosneft to divest international assets that will be mostly rendered useless to them when the US sanctions deadline arrives in mid-December
3 December 2025
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
2 December 2025
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
1 December 2025
The North African producer’s first bidding round in almost two decades is an important milestone but the recent extension suggests a degree of trepidation
