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The shadow fleet is the real chokepoint in 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
China’s new oil position
OPEC, upstream investors and refiners all face strategic shifts now the Asian behemoth is no longer the main engine of global oil demand growth
The AI industry’s coming dominance of oil and gas
Tech giants rather than oil majors could soon upend hydrocarbon markets, starting with North America
Canadian producers positioned to ride out the downcycle
The country’s upstream players have demonstrated resilience to low oil prices and are well positioned to prosper despite a volatile market
Kazakhstan lays groundwork for transformation
The country is pushing to increase production and expand key projects despite challenges including OPEC+ discipline and the limitations of its export infrastructure
Nigeria in upstream charm offensive
The country has opened bidding on 50 blocks in a new licensing round but will face competition for attention and will need to address concerns about security and legislation
OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
OPEC+ set to strengthen its hand
The alliance looks to bolster market management credibility by bringing greater clarity and unity to output cuts and producer capacity later in 2026
Letter from Saudi Arabia: Big oil meets big shovel
As Saudi Arabia pushes mining as a new pillar of its economy, Saudi Aramco is positioning itself at the intersection of hydrocarbons, minerals and industrial policy
Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
Outlook 2025
Upstream Markets
Haitham Al Ghais
31 December 2024
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Outlook 2025: Oil is vital to our global energy futures

The world needs to reduce emissions but must do so while providing affordable and reliable energy to meet rising global demand

Realistic, equitable and inclusive are three key words central to evolving future global energy pathways. We need to be realistic about what each form of energy can provide, especially in terms of security, affordability, availability and reducing emissions. We need to provide for equitable outcomes that consider the circumstances of all peoples across the world. And we need to be inclusive, ensuring all voices are heard. Oil is not only a realistic, equitable and inclusive fuel source, it is also vital to our global energy futures. The term ‘futures’ is plural, because energy needs and realities vary significantly across the world. Indeed, there is neither a one-size-fits-all solution to me

Also in this section
The shadow fleet is the real chokepoint in 2026
27 February 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
Energy week in Riyadh to convene energy leaders across policy, markets and technology
27 February 2026
The 25th WPC Energy Congress to take place in tandem as part of a coordinated week of high-level ministerial, institutional and industry engagements
China’s new oil position
26 February 2026
OPEC, upstream investors and refiners all face strategic shifts now the Asian behemoth is no longer the main engine of global oil demand growth
The AI industry’s coming dominance of oil and gas
25 February 2026
Tech giants rather than oil majors could soon upend hydrocarbon markets, starting with North America

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