IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
OPEC and the IEA largely maintained their overall views of the market in their June 2025 oil market reports, despite geopolitical uncertainty. OPEC held its relatively bullish demand forecast by emphasising a strong base from the first half of 2025 could provide sufficient momentum into a sound second half, even though the growth could moderate on a quarterly basis. Both OPEC members and secondary sources reported only a slight increase in Declaration of Cooperation (DOC) output despite promises of around 550,000b/d of extra output in the past two months. The IEA emphasised structural shifts in its monthly report. it expects Chinese demand to peak before 2030 and foresees a broader decline i
Also in this section
24 December 2025
As activity in the US Gulf has stagnated at a lower level, the government is taking steps to encourage fresh exploration and bolster field development work
23 December 2025
The new government has brought stability and security to the country, with the door now open to international investment
23 December 2025
A third wave of LNG supply is coming, and with it a likely oversupply of the fuel by 2028
22 December 2025
Weakening climate resolve in the developed world and rapidly growing demand in developing countries means peak oil is still a long way away
