IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
OPEC and the IEA largely maintained their overall views of the market in their June 2025 oil market reports, despite geopolitical uncertainty. OPEC held its relatively bullish demand forecast by emphasising a strong base from the first half of 2025 could provide sufficient momentum into a sound second half, even though the growth could moderate on a quarterly basis. Both OPEC members and secondary sources reported only a slight increase in Declaration of Cooperation (DOC) output despite promises of around 550,000b/d of extra output in the past two months. The IEA emphasised structural shifts in its monthly report. it expects Chinese demand to peak before 2030 and foresees a broader decline i
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