Oil market imbalances divide major energy agencies
OPEC and IEA split on oil demand outlook and even diverge on supply risks, with huge implications for market sentiment
The IEA appears to be factoring in negative sentiment around consumption into its annual outlook, while OPEC seems to be more about extrapolating from the here and now. Given the global economic uncertainty, the oil market appears to be erring towards the IEA’s view, but with a focus on trade tensions with China having somewhat shifted to trade deals in the Middle East, the chasm between the two forecasting agencies may still narrow. The latest monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC paint divergent pictures of 2025 and 2026. While both acknowledge the growing share of non-OECD demand, they differ in overall supply growth forecast, future supply dynamics and the pace of the energy t
Also in this section
30 December 2025
Heightened unpredictability in the global energy market underlines the vital nature of UGS, which provides reliability, affordability and resilience
29 December 2025
The surge in power demand created by the AI boom means energy policy and national security are now one and the same
24 December 2025
As activity in the US Gulf has stagnated at a lower level, the government is taking steps to encourage fresh exploration and bolster field development work
23 December 2025
The new government has brought stability and security to the country, with the door now open to international investment
